Real-Time MPAS Forecasts

National Center for Atmospheric Research and Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Arizona


Real-Time Diagnosis of MPAS Forecasts



- General Description
- Daily NCEP-GFS and MPAS forecasts
- 2016 MPAS Tropical Cyclone Forecast Experiment

General Description

The weather maps and diagnostic calculations created here are produced using computer resources at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Arizona. The diagnostic analyses are computed using pressure-level data from the operational National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) and the Model For Prediction Across Scales (MPAS). The native grid resolution of the NCEP-GFS is approximately 13 km. The configuration for MPAS is the same that was used for the 2016 tropical cyclone forecast experiment, except the 15-km cell spacing region is centered over the continental United States. The NCEP-GFS and MPAS output is coarsened/interpolated to 0.5x0.5 degree latitude-longitude grid prior to computing diagnostics and generating visualizations. Please note that this webpage is still under development. While every attempt is made to keep the imagery up-to-date, it is possible that there will be interruptions to the image generation services as system updates occur.

The sections below provide maps and diagnostics for the NCEP-GFS and MPAS forecasts initialized at 0000 UTC. These maps and diagnostics aim to compare NCEP-GFS and MPAS forecasts by examining the evolution of the midlatitude waveguide, specifically how convection in the tropics (including tropical cyclones) impacts the midlatitude jet/waveguide in the forecasts. Futhermore, we are interested in how the evolution in the midlatitude jet/waveguide in the NCEP-GFS and MPAS forecasts impact the medium-range (days 4-10) prediction of global tropical cyclone motion, genesis, and dissipation, and the life-cycle of baroclinic cyclones and midlatitude convective systems.

The development of an earlier version of this real-time webpage was originally supported in part by the Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) Visitor Program (PI: T. Galarneau) and NOAA HFIP awards NA12NWS4680005 (PI: T. Galarneau) and NA14AANWG0249 (PIs: C. Davis and Y.-H. Kuo) during 2013-2015. An earlier version of this website was featured in the "Director's Corner" of the DTC Newsletter Winter 2016.

Real-time quasi-geostrophic diagnostics derived from the GFS are also available here.

The 240-h forecast ARCHIVE is available here

Daily NCEP-GFS and MPAS forecasts:

The 240-h forecast initialized at 2017052200:
1. 200 hPa geopotential height, wind speed, 850 hPa vector wind, and total column precipitable water maps:
Global Strip || Western Pacific || North America || North Atlantic

2. 200 hPa streamfunction, wind speed, divergent wind vectors, and 6-h precipitation maps: Global Strip || Western Pacific || North America || North Atlantic

3. 700-500 hPa layer-mean geopotential height, layer-mean wind, and layer-mean relative humidity maps: Global Strip || Western Pacific || North America || North Atlantic

4. 700-500 hPa layer-mean geopotential height, layer-mean wind, and lapse rate maps: Global Strip || Western Pacific || North America || North Atlantic

5. 200 hPa relative vorticity and 850-700 hPa layer-mean relative vorticity maps: Global Strip || Western Pacific || North America || North Atlantic

6. Sea-level pressure, 10-m vector wind, and 10-m wind speed maps: Global Strip || Western Pacific || North America || North Atlantic

7. Sea-level pressure, 10-m vector wind, and surface latent heat flux maps: Global Strip || Western Pacific || North America || North Atlantic

8. Sea-level pressure, 10-m vector wind, and surface sensible heat flux maps: Global Strip || Western Pacific || North America || North Atlantic

9. Sea-level pressure, 10-m vector wind, and 2-m mixing ratio maps: Global Strip || Western Pacific || North America || North Atlantic

10. Sea-level pressure, 10-m vector wind, and 2-m potential temperature maps: Global Strip || Western Pacific || North America || North Atlantic

11. Geopotential height and wind difference maps (MPAS minus GFS): Global Strip || Western Pacific || North America || North Atlantic

12. Hovmoller diagrams:
Midlatitudes:
a. 200 hPa meridional wind (shaded in m/s) averaged in 40-60N latitude band: MPAS || GFS
b. 200 hPa meridional wind (shaded in m/s) averaged in 30-50N latitude band: MPAS || GFS
c. 200 hPa zonal wind (shaded in m/s) averaged in 40-60N latitude band: MPAS || GFS
d. 200 hPa zonal wind (shaded in m/s) averaged in 30-50N latitude band: MPAS || GFS
e. 500 hPa meridional wind (contours every 10 m/s; red=southerly, black=northerly, zero-line not plotted) averaged in 50-70N latitude band and Tibaldi and Molteni (1990) blocking index (shaded where blocking is occurring): MPAS || GFS
f. 200 hPa meridional wind (contours every 10 m/s; red=southerly, blue=northerly, zero-line not plotted) and 700-500 hPa lapse rate (shaded in C/km) averaged in 40-50N latitude band: MPAS || GFS

Tropics and Subtropics:
a. Precipitable water (shaded in mm) and 850 hPa meridional wind (contours every 5 m/s; red=southerly, blue=northerly, zero-line not plotted) averaged in 25-35N latitude band: MPAS || GFS
b. 700-500 hPa layer-mean relative humidity (shaded in %) averaged in 10-20N latitude band: MPAS || GFS
c. 700 hPa meridional wind (shaded in m/s) averaged in 10-20N latitude band: MPAS || GFS
d. 700 hPa zonal wind (shaded in m/s) averaged in 10-20N latitude band: MPAS || GFS

Equatorial:
a. Precipitable water (shaded in mm) and 850 hPa zonal wind (contours every 2 m/s; red=westerly, purple=easterly, zero-line not plotted) averaged in 5S-5N latitude band: MPAS || GFS
b. 700-500 hPa layer-mean relative humidity (shaded in %) averaged in 5S-5N latitude band: MPAS || GFS
c. 700 hPa meridional wind (shaded in m/s) averaged in 5S-5N latitude band: MPAS || GFS
d. 700 hPa zonal wind (shaded in m/s) averaged in 5S-5N latitude band: MPAS || GFS
e. 10-m meridional wind (shaded in m/s) averaged in 5S-5N latitude band: MPAS || GFS
f. 10-m zonal wind (shaded in m/s) averaged in 5S-5N latitude band: MPAS || GFS
g. 200 hPa velocity potential (shaded in x106 m2 s-1) averaged in 5S-5N latitude band: MPAS || GFS
h. 850 hPa velocity potential (shaded in x106 m2 s-1) averaged in 5S-5N latitude band: MPAS || GFS

West coast:
a. Precipitable water (shaded in mm) and 850 hPa zonal wind (contours every 3 m/s; red=westerly, blue=easterly, zero-line not plotted) at grid points along west coast of North America: MPAS || GFS

Time-mean error maps for last 60 days (global; COMING SOON!):
1. 200 hPa streamfunction and nondivergent wind
2. 500 hPa streamfunction and nondivergent wind
3. 700 hPa streamfunction and nondivergent wind
4. 850 hPa streamfunction and nondivergent wind
5. 200 hPa velocity potential, irrotational wind, and precipitable water
6. 850 hPa velocity potential, irrotational wind, and precipitable water
7. 200 hPa geopotential height and full wind
8. 500 hPa geopotential height and full wind
9. 700 hPa geopotential height and full wind
10. 850 hPa geopotential height and full wind
11. Sea-level pressure, 10-m vector wind, and surface latent heat flux maps
12. Sea-level pressure, 10-m vector wind, and surface sensible heat flux maps
13. Sea-level pressure, 10-m vector wind, and 2-m mixing ratio maps
14. Sea-level pressure, 10-m vector wind, and 2-m potential temperature maps

Hovmoller diagrams (last 60 days):
Midlatitudes:
a. 200 hPa meridional wind (shaded in m/s) averaged in 40-60N latitude band: link
b. 200 hPa meridional wind (shaded in m/s) averaged in 30-50N latitude band: link
c. 200 hPa zonal wind (shaded in m/s) averaged in 40-60N latitude band: link
d. 200 hPa zonal wind (shaded in m/s) averaged in 30-50N latitude band: link
e. 500 hPa meridional wind (contours every 10 m/s; red=southerly, black=northerly, zero-line not plotted) averaged in 50-70N latitude band and Tibaldi and Molteni (1990) blocking index (shaded where blocking is occurring): link
f. Blocking frequency by longitude: MPAS || GFS
g. 200 hPa meridional wind (contours every 10 m/s; red=southerly, blue=northerly, zero-line not plotted) and 700-500 hPa lapse rate (shaded in C/km) averaged in 40-50N latitude band: link

Tropics and Subtropics:
a. Precipitable water (shaded in mm) and 850 hPa meridional wind (contours every 5 m/s; red=southerly, blue=northerly, zero-line not plotted) averaged in 25-35N latitude band: link
b. 700-500 hPa layer-mean relative humidity (shaded in %) averaged in 10-20N latitude band: link
c. 700 hPa meridional wind (shaded in m/s) averaged in 10-20N latitude band: link
d. 700 hPa zonal wind (shaded in m/s) averaged in 10-20N latitude band: link

Equatorial:
a. Precipitable water (shaded in mm) and 850 hPa zonal wind (contours every 2 m/s; red=westerly, purple=easterly, zero-line not plotted) averaged in 5S-5N latitude band: link
b. 700-500 hPa layer-mean relative humidity (shaded in %) averaged in 5S-5N latitude band: link
c. 700 hPa meridional wind (shaded in m/s) averaged in 5S-5N latitude band: link
d. 700 hPa zonal wind (shaded in m/s) averaged in 5S-5N latitude band: link
e. 10-m meridional wind (shaded in m/s) averaged in 5S-5N latitude band: link
f. 10-m zonal wind (shaded in m/s) averaged in 5S-5N latitude band: link
g. 200 hPa velocity potential (shaded in x106 m2 s-1) averaged in 5S-5N latitude band: link
h. 850 hPa velocity potential (shaded in x106 m2 s-1) averaged in 5S-5N latitude band: link

West coast:
a. Precipitable water (shaded in mm) and 850 hPa zonal wind (contours every 3 m/s; red=westerly, blue=easterly, zero-line not plotted) at grid points along west coast of North America: link

Time series analysis (last 60 days):
1. Northern Hemisphere eddy kinetic energy: MPAS || GFS
2. Southern Hemisphere eddy kinetic energy: MPAS || GFS
3. Precipitable water in tropics:
WPAC region: 5-15oS MPAS || GFS / 5oS-5oN MPAS || GFS / 5-15oN MPAS || GFS
CPAC region: 5-15oS MPAS || GFS / 5oS-5oN MPAS || GFS / 5-15oN MPAS || GFS
EPAC region: 5-15oS MPAS || GFS / 5oS-5oN MPAS || GFS / 5-15oN MPAS || GFS
NATL region: 5-15oS MPAS || GFS / 5oS-5oN MPAS || GFS / 5-15oN MPAS || GFS
4. 500 hPa relative humidity in tropics:
WPAC region: 5-15oS MPAS || GFS / 5oS-5oN MPAS || GFS / 5-15oN MPAS || GFS
CPAC region: 5-15oS MPAS || GFS / 5oS-5oN MPAS || GFS / 5-15oN MPAS || GFS
EPAC region: 5-15oS MPAS || GFS / 5oS-5oN MPAS || GFS / 5-15oN MPAS || GFS
NATL region: 5-15oS MPAS || GFS / 5oS-5oN MPAS || GFS / 5-15oN MPAS || GFS
5. 700 hPa relative humidity in tropics:
WPAC region: 5-15oS MPAS || GFS / 5oS-5oN MPAS || GFS / 5-15oN MPAS || GFS
CPAC region: 5-15oS MPAS || GFS / 5oS-5oN MPAS || GFS / 5-15oN MPAS || GFS
EPAC region: 5-15oS MPAS || GFS / 5oS-5oN MPAS || GFS / 5-15oN MPAS || GFS
NATL region: 5-15oS MPAS || GFS / 5oS-5oN MPAS || GFS / 5-15oN MPAS || GFS
6. 850 hPa relative humidity in tropics:
WPAC region: 5-15oS MPAS || GFS / 5oS-5oN MPAS || GFS / 5-15oN MPAS || GFS
CPAC region: 5-15oS MPAS || GFS / 5oS-5oN MPAS || GFS / 5-15oN MPAS || GFS
EPAC region: 5-15oS MPAS || GFS / 5oS-5oN MPAS || GFS / 5-15oN MPAS || GFS
NATL region: 5-15oS MPAS || GFS / 5oS-5oN MPAS || GFS / 5-15oN MPAS || GFS

Rainfall analysis (last 60 days; 3-day lag):
1. Time series of daily rainfall in tropics:
WPAC region: 5-15oS MPAS || GFS / 5oS-5oN MPAS || GFS / 5-15oN MPAS || GFS
CPAC region: 5-15oS MPAS || GFS / 5oS-5oN MPAS || GFS / 5-15oN MPAS || GFS
EPAC region: 5-15oS MPAS || GFS / 5oS-5oN MPAS || GFS / 5-15oN MPAS || GFS
NATL region: 5-15oS MPAS || GFS / 5oS-5oN MPAS || GFS / 5-15oN MPAS || GFS
2. Time series of daily cumulus rainfall in tropics:
WPAC region: 5-15oS MPAS || GFS / 5oS-5oN MPAS || GFS / 5-15oN MPAS || GFS
CPAC region: 5-15oS MPAS || GFS / 5oS-5oN MPAS || GFS / 5-15oN MPAS || GFS
EPAC region: 5-15oS MPAS || GFS / 5oS-5oN MPAS || GFS / 5-15oN MPAS || GFS
NATL region: 5-15oS MPAS || GFS / 5oS-5oN MPAS || GFS / 5-15oN MPAS || GFS
3. Time-longitude diagram of daily rainfall in tropics: 5-15S || 5S-5N || 5-15N
4. Time-longitude diagram of daily cumulus rainfall in tropics: 5-15S || 5S-5N || 5-15N
5. Time-mean map of daily rainfall
6. Time-mean map of daily cumulus rainfall

2016 MPAS Tropical Cyclone Forecast Experiment:

COMING SOON: An archive of daily forecasts and a seasonal diagnostic analysis of MPAS and NCEP-GFS forecasts will appear here. A summary of the MPAS configuration used for the 2016 tropical cyclone season is provided
here.


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Created and maintained by Thomas Galarneau
Thomas Galarneau || Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences

Acknowledgement: The html code used for the animations was developed by Alan Brammer.

Notes:
- The blocking calculation follows the methodology developed by Tibaldi and Molteni (1990).
- The irrotational and nondivergent wind components are computed using functions provided in NCL.