FOURTH SOUTHWEST HYDROMETEOROLOGY SYMPOSIUM

FOURTH SOUTHWEST HYDROMETEOROLOGY SYMPOSIUM SEPTEMBER 20-21, 2007 TUCSON HILTON EAST HOTEL TUCSON, ARIZONA

REGISTRATION

Wednesday, September 19: 6 p.m. - 9 p.m
Thursday, September 20: 6:30 a.m - 12 p.m

SYMPOSIUM DAY ONE: THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 20

8:00-8:10

Welcome and introduction to symposium
Christopher Castro and Erik Pytlak, Symposium Co-Chairs
University of Arizona and NWS Tucson, Tucson, Arizona

SESSION I: HYDROMETEOROLOGY INTEGRATION

8:10-8:30	The Effect of Southwest Drought on Precipitation of Evapotranspired Origin Francina Dominguez, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona [Abstract] [Presentation]
8:30-8:50	Wide-Area Soil Moisture Estimation Using the Propagation of Low-Frequency Electromagnetic Signals Bill Scheftic, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona [Abstract] [Presentation]
8:50-9:10	Variability of land surface energy fluxes in southern Arizona Russell Scott, USDA-ARS, Tucson, Arizona [Abstract] [Presentation]
9:10-9:30	Flash-flood forecast uncertainty for distributed models using radar data Soni Yatheendradas, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, New Mexico [Abstract] [Presentation]

POSTER SESSION AND MORNING BREAK: 9:30-11:00

SEE POSTER TITLES FOLLOWING ORAL PRESENTATION SCHEDULE

11:00-11:30

Invited presentation:
Integrating Measurements and Models from Bedrock to Boundary Layer: A Strategy for Total Flux Measurement at the Hillslope Scale
Christopher Duffy, Penn State University, University Park, Pennsylvania [Abstract] [Presentation]

SESSION II: CLIMATE SCIENCE AND ANNUAL PREDICTION

11:30-12:00

Invited presentation:
Extreme precipitation variability in the core of the North American Monsoon
Tereza Cavazos, CICESE, Baja California Norte, Mexico
[Abstract] [Presentation]

LUNCH: 12:00 - 1:15

1:15-1:35	NWS Water Supply Services Chad Kahler, NWS Tucson, Tucson, Arizona [Abstract] [Presentation]
1:35-1:55	Assessing the impact of LULCC on the Greater Phoenix Area Matei Georgescu, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey [Abstract] [Presentation]
1:55-2:15	Collaborative Drought Monitoring and Seasonal Drought Prediction in CPPA Ken Mitchell, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, Maryland [Abstract] [Presentation]
2:15-2:35	Update on NOAAWest David Brandon, NWS Salt Lake City, Salt Lake City, Utah [Abstract] [Presentation]
2:35-2:55	Managing Flash Floods: Risk Perception from a Cultural Perspective Ashley Coles, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona [Abstract] [Presentation]

AFTERNOON BREAK: 2:55-3:20

3:20-3:40	Summer Seasonal Predictions with the NCEP Coupled Forecast System Rongqian Yang, NOAA EMC, Camp Springs Maryland [Abstract] [Presentation]
3:40-4:00	Anomalous Summer Precipitation over New Mexico During 2006 Shawn Bennett, NWS Albuquerque, Albuquerque, New Mexico [Abstract] [Presentation]
4:00-4:20	Human induced changes in the hydrologic cycle of the western U.S. Tim Barnett and David Pierce, Scripps Inst. of Oceanography, La Jolla California [Abstract] [Presentation]
4:20-4:40	Detection and Attribution of Climate Change in Streamflow Variability Hugo Hidalgo, Scripps Inst. of Oceanography, La Jolla, California [Abstract] [Presentation]
4:40-5:00	Transient Inverted Troughs Interacting with the North American Monsoon Stephen Bieda III, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona [Abstract] [Presentation]

SYMPOSIUM DAY 2: FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 21

SESSION III: FORECASTING AND QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATION

8:30-8:50	Vaisala Capabilities in Hydrometeorology Nick Demetriades, Vaisala, Inc., Tucson, Arizona [Abstract] [Presentation]
8:50-9:10	A Probabilistic Model for Predicting Seasonal Rainfall in Northeast Brazil Bernado Barbosa da Silva, Federal University of Campina Grande, Campina Grande, Brazil [Abstract]
9:10-9:30	Future QPE: Dual-pol and Gap-filler radars Kevin Scharfenberg, CIMMS/NSSL, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma [Abstract] [Presentation]
9:30-10:00	Invited presentation: Use of reforecasts for improving probabilistic precipitation forecasts Tom Hamill, NOAA ESRL, Boulder, Colorado [Abstract] [Presentation]

MORNING BREAK: 10:00-10:20

10:20-10:40	The True Monsoon: The Phoenix three-days 55 monsoon onset criterion Jon Skindlov, Salt River Project, Phoenix, Arizona [Abstract] [Presentation]
10:40-11:10	Invited presentation: NAME: Progress and challenges in improving predictions of warm season precipitation David Gochis, UCAR, Boulder, Colorado [Abstract] [Presentation]
11:10-11:30	Tracking gulf surge events using isotopes of water vapor Mel Strong, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, New Mexico [Abstract] [Presentation]
11:30-12:00	Invited presentation: Synoptic control of warm season rainfall Lance Bosart, SUNY Albany, Albany, New York [Abstract] [Presentation]

LUNCH: 12:00-1:15

SESSION IV: EXTREME WATER AND WEATHER EVENTS

1:15-1:35	Effects of Wildfire in Mountainous Terrain Bill Reed, NOAA Colorado River Basin Forecast Center, Salt Lake City, Utah [Abstract] [Presentation]
1:35-1:55	Extreme Hydrologic Events from Multi-Day Mesoscale Convection Craig Shoemaker, NWS Tucson, Tucson, Arizona [Abstract] [Presentation]
1:55-2:15	Linear-Regression Model for Estimating Runoff Volumes Using Paleoflood and Modern Streamflow Records from Snowmelt-Dominated Rivers Jon Mason, Hopi Tribe Water Resources Program, Kykotsmovi Village, Arizona [Abstract] [Presentation]
2:15-2:35	Upper-level mesoscale disturbances on the periphery of closed anitcyclones Thomas Galerneau, Jr., SUNY Albany, Albany, New York [Abstract] [Presentation]
2:35-2:55	An Initial Climatology of Extreme Precipitation Events in Arizona Desert Areas John Henz, HDR Engineering, Denver, Colorado [Abstract] [Presentation]

AFTERNOON BREAK: 2:55-3:20

3:20-3:40	Cool Season Severe Weather Events in southern Arizona David Blanchard, NWS Flagstaff, Bellemont, Arizona [Abstract] [Presentation]
3:40-4:00	The January 21-22, 2007 Winter Storm and Its Impact on Southeast Arizona Glenn Lader, NWS Tucson, Tucson, Arizona [Abstract] [Presentation]
4:00-4:20	The Contribution of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones to the Warm Season Rainfall Climatology of the Southwest United States Kristen Corbosiero, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California [Abstract] [Presentation]
4:20-4:40	Using lightning data to monitor the intensification of tropical cyclones Lesley Leary, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona [Abstract] [Presentation]
4:40-5:00	Tropical cyclone Impacts in Western Mexico and the Southwest U.S. David Roth, NOAA HPC, Camp Springs, Maryland [Abstract] [Presentation]

END OF SYMPOSIUM

SYMPOSIUM POSTER PRESENTATIONS

HYDROMETEOROLOGY INTEGRATION

Distributed Modeling-Applications in Operational Hydrology
Ed Clark, NWS NOAA Colorado River Basin Forecast Center, Salt Lake City, Utah
[Abstract]

Toward a Permanent GPS Receiver Network in Northwestern Mexico
E.R. Kursinski, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona
[Abstract]

CLIMATE SCIENCE AND ANNUAL PREDICTION

Arizona Drought Monitoring Update
Gregg Garfin, ISPE/CLIMAS, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona
[Abstract]

Are GCMs Philosophically Robust?
Zach Pirtle, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona
[Abstract]

Multiscale modeling of Land-Atmosphere Interactions in the North American Monsoon
Loren White, Jackson State University, Jackson, Mississippi
[Abstract]

FORECASTING AND QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATION

Tropospheric Moisture and Monsoonal Rainfall over the Southwestern U.S.
David Brown, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana
[Abstract] [Poster]

Determination of baseflow impacts in riparian areas
Lissette De La Cruz, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona
[Abstract]

Elevation-dependent trends in precipitation observed by the NAME radar network
Angela Rowe, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado
[Abstract] [Poster]

Isotopic variability in water vapor over New Mexico: implications for water vapor transport
Mel Strong, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, New Mexico
[Abstract]

EXTREME WATER AND WEATHER EVENTS

Multi-Source Thunderstorm Rainfall Estimation Using Infrared and Lightning Data
Ali Amirrezvani, City College of New York, NOAA-CREST, New York, New York
[Abstract] [Poster]

The impact of TC Remants of the rainfall of the North American SW Region
Elizabeth Ritchie, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona
[Abstract]

Severe Weather Climatology for Arizona
Craig Shoemaker, NWS Tucson, Tucson, Arizona
[Abstract]

Effects of Uncertainty in soil moisture in semi-arid hydrologic forecasting
Soni Yatheendradas, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, New Mexico
[Abstract]