Tuesday Dec. 7, 2010

A couple of songs from the Royal Crown Revue ("Hey Pachuco" and "The Walkin' Blues").  Seemed like just the right kind of stuff to end the semester with. 

Everything in my possesion as of last Friday has been graded and was returned in class today together with grade summaries.

The Final Exam for this class is Thursday, Dec. 16 from 8-10 am in ILC 140.  You can take the final with the other section this coming Friday, 2-4 pm in CESL 103.  Please let me know ahead of time if you plan to do that.

Today's pictures of the day.  Clockwise from upper left: Fox, Rajah, stray cat #1, stray cat #2.







We will spend the last day of class on Hurricanes.  This will be the final topic that we cover this semester.  This won't be on this week's quiz but will most likely be on the Final Exam.

A good place to begin is to compare hurricanes (tropical cyclones) with middle latitude storms (extratropical cyclones).  The middle column below list some similarities, the outer columns list differences.  These are not details that you need to worry about for the Final Exam.




Middle latitude storms
Similarities
Hurricanes
1
form at middle latitudes
 (30 to 60 degrees latitude)
both types of storms have low pressure centers
(cyclone refers to winds blowing around low pressure)
from in the subtropics
(5 to 20 degrees latitude)
2
can form over land or water
upper level divergence is what causes
both types of storms to intensify
only form over warm ocean water
3
bigger (might cover half the US)

not as big (might fill the Gulf of Mexico)
4
fronts separate warm and cold air masses

just warm moist air
5
at middle latitude the prevailing westerly winds move these storms from west to east

the trade winds move hurricanes from east to west
6
strongest in the winter into early spring

strongest in late summer into fall (when the ocean is warmest)
7
produce rain, snow, sleet, graupel
mostly just rain (lots of rain)
8
usually no name

get names

Hurricanes receive names (when they reach tropical storm strength).  The names now alternate male and female.  The names of particularly strong or deadly hurricanes (such as Katrina) are retired, otherwise the names repeat every 6 years. 




The figure above shows the relative frequency of tropical cyclone development in different parts of the world.  The name hurricane, cyclone, and typhoon all refer to the same type of storm (tropical cyclone is a general name that can be used anywhere).  You should be aware that these different names all refer to the same type of storm; you don't need to remember which name goes with which location.  In most years the ocean off the coast of SE Asia is the world's most active hurricane zone.  Hurricanes are very rare off the east and west coasts of South America.

Hurricanes form between 5 and 20 degrees latitude, over warm ocean water, north and south of the equator.  The warm layer of water must be fairly deep to contain enough energy to fuel a hurricane and so that turbulence and mixing don't bring cold water up to the ocean surface.  The atmosphere must be unstable so that thunderstorms can develop.  Hurricanes will only form when there is very little or no vertical wind shear (changing wind direction or speed with altitude).  Hurricanes don't form at the equator because there is no Coriolis force there (the Coriolis force is what gives hurricanes their spin and it causes hurricanes to spin in opposite directions in the northern and southern hemispheres).

Note that more tropical cyclones form off the west coast of the US than off the east coast.  The west coast hurricanes don't generally get much attention, because they move away from the coast and usually don't present a threat to the US (except occasionally to the state of Hawaii).  The moisture from these storms will sometimes be pulled up into the southwestern US where it can lead to heavy rain and flooding.

Hurricane season in the Atlantic officially runs from June 1 through to November 30.  The peak of hurricane season is in September.  In 2005, an unusually active hurricane season in the Atlantic, hurricanes continued through December and even into January 2006.  Hurricane season in the Pacific begins two weeks earlier on May 15 and runs through Nov. 30.


Some kind of meteorological process that produces low level convergence is needed to initiate a hurricane.  One possibility, and the one that fuels most of the strong N. Atlantic hurricanes, is an "easterly wave."  This is just a "wiggle" in the wind flow pattern.  Easterly waves often form over Africa or just off the African coast and then travel toward the west across the N. Atlantic.  Winds converge as they approach the wave and then diverge once they are past it .  The convergence will cause air to rise and thunderstorms to begin to develop. 



In an average year, in the N. Atlantic, there will be 10 named storms (tropical storms or hurricanes) that develop during hurricane season.  2005 was, if you remember,  a very unusual year.  There were 28 named storms in the N. Atlantic in 2005.  That beat the previous record of 21 names storms that had been set in 1933.  Of the 28 named storms, 15 developed into hurricanes.


In some ways winds blowing through an easterly wave resembles traffic on a multi-lane highway.  Traffic will back up as it approaches a section of the highway with a closed lane.  Once through the "bottleneck" traffic will begin to flow more freely.




Another process that causes surface winds to converge is a "lee side low."




This figure tries to explain how a cluster of thunderstorms can organize and intensify into a hurricane.


1.  Converging surface winds pick up heat and moisture from the ocean.  These are the two mains sources of energy for the hurricane.

2.   Rising air expands, cools, and thunderstorm clouds form.  The release of latent heat during condensation warms the atmosphere.  The core of a hurricane is warmer than the air around it.

3.   Pressure decreases more slowly with increasing altitude in the warm core of the hurricane.  The result is that pressure at the top center of the hurricane is higher than the pressure at the top edges of the hurricane (pressure at the top center is still lower than the pressure at the bottom center of the hurricane).  Upper levels winds diverge and spiral outward from the top center of the hurricane (you can sometimes see this on satellite photographs of hurricanes).

4.   The upper level divergence will cause the surface pressure at the center of the hurricane to decrease.  The speed of the converging surface winds increases and the storm intensifies.  The converging winds pick up additional heat and moisture which warms the core of the hurricane even more.  The upper level high pressure and the upper level divergence increase.  The increased divergence lowers the surface pressure even more.


Here's another view of hurricane development and intensification (not shown in class)


In the figure at left the upper level divergence is stronger than the surface convergence.  Divergence is removing more air than is being added by surface convergence.  The surface low pressure will decrease.  The decrease in surface pressure will cause the converging surface winds to blow faster.

In the middle picture, the surface low pressure is lower, the surface convergence is stronger.  The upper level divergence has also been strengthened a little bit.  The upper level divergence is still stronger than the surface convergence so the surface so the surface low pressure will decrease even more.

In the right figure the surface low pressure has decreased enough that the surface convergence now balances the upper level divergence.  The storm won't strengthen any more.

Generally speaking the lower the surface pressure at the center of a hurricane the stronger the storm and the faster the surface winds will blow.
  The following figure (not shown in class) shows this



This figure tries to show the relationship between surface pressure and surface wind speed. 
The world record low sea level pressure reading, 870 mb, was set by Typooon Tip off the SE Asia coast in 1979.  Sustained winds in that storm were 190 MPH.  Three 2005 Atlantic hurricanes: Wilma, Rita, and Katrina had pressures in the 880 mb to 900 mb range and winds ranging from 170 to 190 MPH.

The stages of storm development that lead up to a hurricane are shown at the bottom of p. 143a in the photocopied ClassNotes.


A tropical disturbance is just a localized cluster of thunderstorms that a meterologist might see on a satellite photograph.  But this would merit observation because of the potential for further development.  Signs of rotation would be evidence of organization and the developing storm would be called a tropical depression.

In order to be called a tropical storm the storm must organize a little more, and winds must increase to 35 knots.  The storm receives a name at this point.  Finally when winds exceed 75 MPH (easier to remember than 65 knots or 74 MPH) the storm becomes a hurricane.



A crossectional view of a mature hurricane (top) and a picture like you might see on a satellite photograph (below). 

Sinking air in the very center of a hurricane produces the clear skies of the eye, a hurricane's most distinctive feature.  The eye is typically a few 10s of miles across, though it may only be a few miles across in the strongest hurricanes.  Generally speaking the smaller the eye, the stronger the storm.

A ring of strong thunderstorms, the eye wall, surrounds the eye.  This is where the hurricane's strongest winds are found. 

Additional concentric rings of thunderstorms are found as you move outward from the center of the hurricane.  These are called rain bands.  These usually aren't visible until you get to the outer edge of the hurricane because they are covered by high altitude layer clouds.


That was all the new material we had time to cover in class because a 20 minute segment from a NOVA program (PBS network) on hurricanes was shown.  A film crew was on board a NOAA reconnaissance plane as it flew into the narrow eye of hurricane GILBERT.  Gilbert set the record low sea level pressure reading for the Atlantic ocean (888 mb).  That record stood until the 2005 hurricane season when WILMA set a new record of 882 mb.  The world record low sea level pressure, 870 mb, was set in a SE Asian typhoon in 1979.

Here are some comments shown during the video.   We will review the Saffir Simpson scale in class on Monday.



Here's a simplified version of the Saffir-Simpson scale used to rate hurricane strength or intensity.




You should remember that the scale runs from 1 to 5 and that winds need to be 75 MPH or greater in order for a tropical storm to become a hurricane.

A hurricane storm surge is a rise in ocean level caused when a hurricane moves onshore.  It causes most of the destruction along a coastline.  The following figure shows how a storm surge develops.



Out at sea, the converging surface winds create surface currents in the ocean that transport water toward the center of the hurricane.  The rise in ocean level is probably only a few feet, though the waves are much larger.  A return flow develops underwater that carries the water back to where it came from.

As the hurricane approaches shore, the ocean becomes shallower.  The return flow must pass through a more restricted space.  A rise in ocean level will increase the underwater pressure and the return flow will speed up.  More pressure and an even faster return flow is needed as the hurricane gets near the coast.  The rise in ocean level can be more than 20 feet for a category 5 hurricane.

Here is a link to the storm surge website (from the Hurricane Research Division of the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Labororatory).  It has an interesting animation showing output from the SLOSH model used to predict hurricane storm surges and the flooding they can cause.


And with that we came to
THE END
of what we will be able to cover in NATS 101 this semester.  In class on Wednesday we will begin the  review for next week's Final Exam.