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Climate Change and Implications

Climate has changed in the past and will continue to change in the future. Climate change is a part of Earth's history. The issue is whether or not humans are significantly altering the natural progression of climate change, and if so, will these changes be detrimental to life on Earth, including human life. On this page we will examine the recent observed changes in temperture and climate as well as some of the impacts of those changes. We will then briefly discuss the IPCC 2007 report's estimation of what caused the recent observed changes. Finally, we will take a look at what could happen in the future if current climate trends continue.

Climate has changed during the past century. Below is a list of some of the changes that have occurred based on information contained in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Note that these changes are allegedly based largely on observations and to a lesser extent models, so we can place more confidence that these are correct in comparison to predictions of future climate change. However, some of the recent climate changes described in the latest IPCC Report are questioned by climate researchers. Please keep in mind that observed changes do not provide strong evidence for why the changes have happened. For example, Arctic sea ice has decreased in coverage since 1980. We are quite certain of that. However, that observation does not prove that the reason for the decrease in Arctic sea ice is human emissions of greenhouse gases.

Attributing Observed Climate Changes to Human Activities

The most recent IPCC report (2007) is now more forceful in its statement concerning the anthropogenic influence on observed climate changes: "Most of the observed increase in globally averaged tempertures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in greenhouse gas concentrations." This is different from the previous statement "most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations." The new assessment is said to consider longer and improved records and observations of climate change, as well as improvements in climate model simulations. Instructor's note: I wonder if they are putting too much faith in the ability of climate models.

One specific issue is that climate models all predict that if greenhouse gases are driving climate change, then there will be a distinct pattern in the warming trend. It is predicted that warming in the tropical regions (increases in temperature) will be smallest at the surface and increase with increasing alitude throughout the tropical troposphere. However, the temperature data from satellites and balloon-borne soundings do not show this pattern. The data show a slight cooling with increasing alitude in the tropical troposphere rather than warming. While this does not disprove that greenhouse gases are the main cause of the observed warming of surface air temperature, it does indicate that current climate models are not simulating the changes correctly.

Climate is expected to continue to change in the future. The following list is based on climate model projected changes due to addition of greenhouse gases. Because this list is based on climate model projections, these changes are by no means certain to happen.

Potential Impacts of Climate Change

[Potential Climate Change Impacts]


Health Impacts

Water Resources Impacts

Forest Impacts

Coastal Areas

Species and Natural Areas

Agriculture Impacts

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