The University of Arizona Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences

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Tuesday | June 14, 2016

UA Atmospheric Scientists Forecast Eight Atlantic Hurricanes

For the 2016 Hurricane Season (1 June to 30 November), UA scientists predict eight hurricanes in the North Atlantic, including the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea. It is based on the method developed by Davis et al. (2015). The range of this year's hurricane numbers is estimated at 6 to 11 by adding/subtracting one standard deviation of forecast errors. Calculated this way, the range captured 88% of the actual hurricane counts from 1950-2015.

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